At 20:00 China Time on November 19, 2023, the sixth round of the third stage of the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers will see Indonesia host Saudi Arabia in Group C.
The situation in Group C of this 18-team qualifier is quite intriguing. Apart from Japan’s dominant lead, all other teams are embroiled in a fierce battle. After five matches, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and China have each secured 6 points, while Bahrain has 5 points in fifth place. Indonesia, meanwhile, has 3 points at the bottom of the group.
Notably, China is the second team to secure two wins after Japan, making Saudi Arabia’s performance somewhat awkward. Following their stunning upset of Argentina at the 2022 World Cup, Saudi Arabia brought in renowned coach Roberto Mancini, who led Italy to the 2020 European Championship title, with the hope of further improvement.
However, despite his top-tier salary, Mancini struggled to adapt to the environment. In over a year, he led the team in 18 matches, winning only 7, drawing 5, and losing 6, with a win rate of just 38.8%. They were eliminated early from the Asian Cup, and in the first four rounds of the World Cup qualifiers, they managed only 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss. They suffered a home defeat to Japan, were held to draws by Indonesia and Bahrain, and failed to win any of their first three home games (1 win, 3 draws). Their only victory was a last-minute goal against China, which led the Saudi Football Federation to replace Mancini with Frenchman Hervé Renard.
However, in the last round against Australia, Saudi Arabia still failed to secure a win, resulting in a 0-0 draw. As a result, halfway through the 18-team qualifier, Saudi Arabia has only one win and has not yet secured a spot in the top two of the group.
As a new face in the 18-team qualifier, Indonesia has been actively naturalizing players, including Reinders Jr., Hadi, Jann, Izzes, Walsh, and Kevin Diks. Despite being ranked 130th in the world, according to Transfermarkt data, the entire Indonesian squad is valued at 21.43 million euros.
Indonesia started the tournament by holding Saudi Arabia and Australia to draws and took a point away from Bahrain’s home ground. However, they lost 1-2 to China in the fourth round, leading to a sharp decline in their form. In the last round, they suffered a 0-4 home defeat to Japan, the strongest team in the group. As a result, halfway through the 18-team qualifier, Indonesia has only 3 draws and 2 losses, making them the only team in Group C without a win.
Saudi Arabia’s goal-scoring ability is rather average, having scored only 3 goals in the first five matches, on par with Bahrain and even 2 goals fewer than China. Even though they have conceded only 4 goals, it has not been enough to secure satisfactory results. Although Indonesia’s squad is strong, they have only scored 4 goals in the first five matches, averaging 0.8 goals per game, and have conceded 9 goals, an average of 1.8 goals per game, which is clearly below expectations.
Since the 2022 Asian Cup, Saudi Arabia has played 4 away matches, drawing 1-1 with Tajikistan, winning 3-0 against Pakistan, narrowly defeating China 2-1, and drawing 0-0 with Australia, remaining unbeaten in four consecutive away games. However, considering the relatively weak strength of the first two opponents, Saudi Arabia’s away performance is not impressive.
In the same period, Indonesia played 6 home matches, securing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, facing opponents like Iraq, Japan, and Australia, which is a reasonable record.
Since December 1980, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have met 13 times, with Saudi Arabia maintaining an unbeaten record of 11 wins and 2 draws. During this period, Saudi Arabia has scored 42 goals and conceded only 6, with the largest margin of victory being 8-0, giving them a significant psychological advantage.
>>”>For more predictions and analysis, click here>>>
