At 3:45 AM Beijing time on November 18, in the 6th round of Group B in the UEFA Nations League A for the 24/25 season, Italy, who have already secured their place in the next round, will host their old rival France.
France reached the semi-finals of this summer’s European Championship, but their journey was relatively ugly, especially after being eliminated by Spain. Both Kylian Mbappé and head coach Didier Deschamps faced criticism from fans. Mbappé struggled to adapt to the center-forward position, while Deschamps was criticized for his conservative tactics. After the European Championship, tensions simmered within the French team. First, Antoine Griezmann suddenly announced his retirement from international football, followed by Mbappé’s consecutive absences from the team’s lineup.
Without these two top players, France has exposed technical deficiencies, with too many workhorse players but few capable of delivering key passes. In their last match against Israel, France had a possession rate of 71%, and their 24 shots were eight times more than their opponents’ 3 shots, with 8 on target compared to just 1 for Israel.
Despite dominating the entire game, France failed to convert their advantage into goals or a win, resulting in a 0-0 draw and only securing 1 point. Fortunately, Italy defeated Belgium, allowing France to advance smoothly.
After winning the 2020 European Championship, Italy fell into a decline due to a lack of talent. They missed the 2022 World Cup and were sent home early in the round of 16 of this summer’s European Championship by Switzerland, ending their title defense prematurely.
However, in the UEFA Nations League, Italy staged a remarkable comeback despite low expectations. They remained undefeated in the first five rounds with 4 wins and 1 draw, accumulating 13 points to lead the group and secure a spot in the top 8. Italy has regained confidence, scoring 12 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game, with multiple goal scorers. They have outscored the star-studded French team by 3 goals, making their group top position well-deserved.
In 2024, Italy played 13 matches, winning 8, drawing 3, and losing 2, with a win rate of 61.5%. In these 13 matches, Italy scored 20 goals and conceded 11, keeping a clean sheet in only 4 games. Overall, Italy’s offense is solid, but there is room for improvement in their defense.
France, on the other hand, played 15 matches this year, achieving 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a win rate of 53.3%, which is somewhat disappointing. In these 15 matches, France lost to Germany, Spain, and Italy, scoring 18 goals and conceding 12, keeping 8 clean sheets but also being shut out in 4 games.
Currently ranked second in the world, France has a squad valued at 1.01 billion euros, while Italy, ranked ninth, has a squad valued at 658 million euros, showing a significant gap. The two teams have met 40 times, with Italy winning 20, France winning 12, and 8 matches ending in draws.
Since the quarterfinal of the 1998 World Cup, the two teams have met 10 times in official matches, with France winning 6, Italy winning 3, and 1 match ending in a goalless draw. However, in their last encounter, France suffered a 1-3 defeat at home.
With both teams already securing their places in the next round, the pressure is off, and the focus will be on player development. Can the talent-rich France reclaim their pride in the away match?
>>”>For more predictions and analysis of this match, click here>>>
