On August 5th at 1:15 AM, the 17th round of the 2024 Norwegian Eliteserien season will see Rosenborg host Tromsø. Currently in the league standings, Rosenborg has 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses for a total of 18 points, temporarily placing them 11th. Tromsø also has 18 points with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, putting them in 10th place. The winner of this match has a chance to make significant progress up the table, as Kristiansund is tied on 18 points, Stabæk has 19 points, and Lillestrøm has 20 points, with the maximum point difference between these five teams being just two points, and they are closely bunched together.
Rosenborg’s recent form is hard to describe. In their last match, they drew 2-2 against Fredrikstad, and over the past five league matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. More embarrassing than their poor record is their porous defense, which conceded 14 goals in the last five games, averaging 2.8 goals conceded per game. They now have a total of 29 goals conceded, nearing the 30 mark, with an average of approximately 1.9 goals conceded per game this season. This means that Rosenborg’s defense has virtually collapsed over the last five rounds.
Tromsø’s previous match ended in a goalless draw with Kristiansund. Over the last five league matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Although their record is similar to Rosenborg’s, Tromsø’s defense has suddenly become a bright spot. In the last five games, they conceded only 4 goals, averaging 0.8 goals conceded per game. Their average number of goals conceded per game this season is 1.4. Looking back at the start of the season, Tromsø suffered heavy defeats by 3 or 4 goals, but this situation has been contained in the last five rounds. However, to tighten up defensively, the team’s offensive efficiency has been forced to drop dramatically. They scored only 2 goals in five games, averaging 0.4 goals per game. Their average number of goals scored per game this season is around 1.1, a precipitous decline when compared to the earlier data.
Although their overall performance is not impressive, Rosenborg’s home form is noteworthy. They have 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from 7 home matches, which would place them in the top 5 based solely on home form. Tromsø has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from their 7 away matches, a mediocre performance but far from hopeless.
The two teams are familiar foes in the Norwegian Eliteserien, having faced each other 71 times historically. Rosenborg has 35 wins, 18 draws, and 18 losses, holding a significant advantage. There was a time when Rosenborg dominated their opponents, with scores like 5-0 and 6-1 common. However, in recent years, Rosenborg has declined, and Tromsø has slowly narrowed the gap between them. In their first meeting this season, Rosenborg lost 3-2 away to Tromsø. In the last five meetings, Rosenborg has 2 wins and 3 losses, continuing to concede the lead they previously established.
Rosenborg continues to face severe injury concerns. Henriksen, Pereira, Nelson, and Augustinsson are likely to remain sidelined. The team’s top scorer, Sæter, is regaining form, scoring in his substitute appearance in the last match, and he has three goals in the last five games. However, other players in the team are struggling to find their scoring touch, adding to the defensive woes of Rosenborg. In contrast, Tromsø’s injury situation is not as severe. However, the number of players available to provide lineup changes is limited. Winter, who came off the bench in the last match and performed well, may be included in the starting lineup for this game. Bari, who was rested in the last match, may return to the starting lineup.
Based on their season performances, the two teams are evenly matched. Recently, Rosenborg’s defensive efficiency has significantly dropped, which may provide an opportunity for opponents to take points from them. Although Tromsø’s defensive quality has improved, they have done so at the cost of their offensive efficiency. Therefore, overall, they are still treading water.
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