On March 22nd at 1 am Beijing Time, Georgia will host Luxembourg in the UEFA Euro Qualifying Play-off C Group match.
The 2024 European Championship qualifiers are nearing their end, with only three spots remaining to be decided through play-offs.
Norway’s Erling Haaland and Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard will miss out on this summer’s Euros due to their poor performance in the 2022/23 Nations League, despite Norway (third in Group A) finishing above Georgia (fourth) in the previous qualifying round. However, Georgia’s advantage lies in their top position in the Nations League C4 group, securing their play-off spot.
If Georgia defeats Luxembourg in the upcoming semi-final, they will advance to the final against the winner of the other semi-final (Greece vs Kazakhstan). The team coached by Willy Sagnol has the benefit of hosting both the semi-final and potentially the final, with a single-match format.
Since November 2021, Georgia has lost only one home game (1-7 to Spain in the recent Euro 2024 qualifiers), with a high winning rate in their last 11 matches: 7 victories. Their strong home form has been instrumental in securing their second consecutive play-off appearance, as they strive for a maiden major tournament qualification.
In the 2020 Euros, Georgia reached the play-off final but were narrowly defeated 0-1 by North Macedonia, missing out on their first major tournament. Coincidentally, they also had home-field advantage in those games, so there is a strong desire to rewrite history, especially considering the significant improvement under Sagnol, a former French national team member who was part of the 2006 World Cup runners-up squad.
On the other hand, Luxembourg has never qualified for a World Cup or Euro finals. This is the first time the small country, nestled in Europe’s heartland (approximately 2,500 square kilometers, with a population under 700,000), has reached a play-off in its national team’s history.
During the 2024 Euro qualifiers, Luxembourg achieved their best-ever major tournament qualifying campaign (including World Cup qualifiers), winning five of their ten matches and accumulating 17 points. Previously, they had never won more than three games or earned more than ten points in World Cup and Euro qualifiers.
Nonetheless, Luxembourg would not have qualified for the play-offs if Turkey hadn’t secured their Euro 2024 spot via the qualifying round, as they were not the top-ranked team in the Nations League C group. Similar to Georgia, Luxembourg football has seen an increase in level and standing in recent years.
Under national team coach Luc Holtz, who has been in charge since 2010, Luxembourg has lost only one of their last nine official away matches (a 0-9 loss to Portugal in the Euro 2024 qualifiers). In these matches, Luxembourg drew against Turkey, Slovakia, and Iceland, all considered stronger opponents.
Currently, Luxembourg is ranked closely with Georgia in FIFA rankings (85th vs 77th). The two teams have met three times in friendlies, with each side winning once and drawing once. Analysts believe that Luxembourg has a good chance of avoiding defeat in the semi-final, with the eventual winner possibly emerging after extra time or penalties.
Given the high stakes (one-match elimination), both teams will need to be cautious and minimize risks, as there is no margin for error. With comparable professionalism, the match is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. Luxembourg has conceded one goal or fewer in seven of their last nine away games (excluding friendlies).
Team-wise, Georgia’s star player Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is suspended and unavailable, which is a significant blow. Luxembourg’s forward Danel Sinani, also suspended following a red card in their 1-0 win over Liechtenstein in November, will miss the match.
However, the visitors can still call upon their all-time leading scorer Gerson Rodrigues, who scored five goals in the qualifiers, raising his national team tally to 20, surpassing the previous record holder, Leo Matos (16 goals).
Expected Lineups:
Georgia (5-2-1-2): Mchedlidze; Kakabadze, Kvaratskhelia, Kvirkvelia, Lokoshvili, Goduadze; Kvekveskiri, Kankava; Chakvetadze; Mikautadze, Kvaratskhelia
Luxembourg (3-4-1-2): Moris; Correa, Schanot, M. Martins; Jans, C. Martins, Barreiro, Pinto; T. Siem; Borges Sanchez, Rodrigues
>>’>More prediction numbers for this match can be found here>>>