On June 25th at 3:00 AM, Croatia and Italy will face off in a decisive match of Group B’s third round at the Leipzig Stadium. In the latest FIFA rankings, Croatia stands at 9th place globally and 7th in Europe, while Italy is at 10th globally and 8th in Europe. Both teams are top-tier in European and world football, and their clashes never lack excitement.
Currently, the group standings show Spain with two wins and six points, securing their spot in the next round. A draw in their final match would guarantee them first place in the group. Italy has one win and one loss, accumulating three points and remaining in control of their qualification fate. Albania, considered the weakest team in the group, has one draw and one loss, with one point. Despite their low ranking (66th in the world), they have shown commendable fighting spirit. They still have an outside chance of advancing, albeit requiring a series of miracles. Croatia, on the other hand, has been a major disappointment with one draw and one loss, currently occupying the bottom of the group due to goal difference. To secure a spot in the Round of 16, they must defeat Italy. A draw would leave them relying on fortuitous circumstances.
In their second group match, Croatia was held to a 2:2 draw by Albania. After a 0:3 defeat to Spain in the opener, the Croatian team faced immense psychological pressure. Many expected them to bounce back strongly against Albania, but the “Checkers” found themselves in a precarious situation. Despite conceding early, they quickly regained their footing. Josip Juranović’s own goal and Kramarić’s strike put Croatia ahead before Albania mounted a relentless comeback, scoring an equalizer in the fifth minute of stoppage time. Post-match, Modrić’s disheartened gaze at the pitch and score board indicated that something was amiss with the Croatian squad.
Italy’s second match, a 0:1 loss to Spain, exposed their vulnerabilities despite the narrow margin. Williams and Yamal dominated the wings as if unchallenged, and Italy’s once-solid defense seemed porous. Throughout the game, Italy was outplayed, and it was only Donnarumma’s heroics that kept the deficit to one goal. This was no contest between equals; it was a comprehensive domination. Italy lacked both the pace to match Spain’s youthful attack and the intensity to resist. Defeat seemed predetermined from the start.
Historically, the two teams have met nine times, with Croatia winning three, drawing five, and losing once. In the 2012 UEFA Euro, they drew 1:1 in the same group. Interestingly, in European Championship qualifiers, Italy has never defeated Croatia. Italy’s solitary victory over Croatia dates back to 1942 when they thrashed Croatia 4:0.
After being held to a last-minute draw by Albania, Croatia stands on the brink of elimination. Their recent match exposed several issues, including an aging squad, a one-dimensional attacking approach, and defensive lapses. Key players like Modrić (38), Perišić (35), Kramarić (33), Kovačić, and Brozović (both in their 30s) lack the dynamism of Spain or Germany. Their single pace has been exploited, even by Albania. The struggles of Gvardiol in defense mirror Croatia’s current predicament.
According to multiple Italian media sources, Spalletti is expected to make 4-5 changes to the starting lineup for this decisive encounter. Jorginho, Di Lorenzo, Scalmaça, Chiesa, and others might be rotated. Pellegrini could return to action, while Damir Šamardžić might feature on the right flank. Up front, Reati might be chosen for his vitality. Clearly, Spalletti aims to inject speed and energy into Italy’s game to overpower Croatia. Additionally, it’s confirmed that Dimarco will miss the match due to injury.
Italy needs only a draw to advance, a scenario that has often proven treacherous. Croatia must win to take control of their qualification. While historical data favors Croatia, performance on the pitch will be decisive. Will this be Modrić’s final dance in this Euro tournament?
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